According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, average mortgage rates fell sharply last week. In fact, rates were down across all loan categories, including 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. The decline brought mortgage rates to their lowest level since August. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said falling mortgage rates led to a surge in refinance activity. “As seen a few times this year, the large drop in rates caused another surge in refinance applications,” Kan said. “The refinance index increased 10 percent to its highest level since late August, with both conventional and government refinances experiencing an upswing.” The rate drop didn’t boost home buying activity, however. Purchase activity was relatively flat, though it remains 10 percent higher than last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

When you’re ready to buy a home, the market conditions you encounter will partly be determined by your price range. First-time home buyers looking for an affordable, entry-level home will find very different conditions than someone looking to spend $750,000 on a house. Why is that? Well, the short answer is inventory. How many available homes there are in a particular price range will dictate how much competition buyers encounter and how fast prices are rising or falling. These days, for example, the high end of the housing market is better balanced than the lower tiers. In fact, according to new numbers from the National Association of Realtors’ consumer website, the inventory of homes available for sale above $750,000 is up nearly 5 percent year-over-year. On the other end of the market, the inventory of homes under $200,000 is down 10 percent from last year. That means, first-time and entry-level home buyers should prepare for a more competitive market than buyers of more expensive homes. And, with falling mortgage rates motivating more mid-market buyers, there is concern that inventory levels – which had recently begun to improve – may have trouble keeping up with future demand from buyers. More here.

Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index is a monthly gauge of how Americans feel about the housing market, economy, and their personal financial situation. The survey asks participants for their opinions about home prices, mortgage rates, their job, income, and whether or not they think now is a good time to buy or sell a home. According to the most recent release, respondents are feeling optimistic about the housing market but are beginning to feel less confident about economic conditions and job security. Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, says sentiment is still strong despite consumers becoming a little more cautious. “Consumer sentiment remains relatively strong overall, though uncertainty about the economy and individual financial circumstances appear to be weighing on housing market attitudes a bit more than a month ago,” Duncan said. “Views about the direction of the economy held relatively steady, and the share of respondents who say it’s a good time to buy or sell a home rose slightly. However, consumers who are pessimistic about current housing market conditions are more likely to cite unfavorable economic conditions than the prior month.” More here.

Predicting the future isn’t easy. But, when it comes to the economy and housing market, there are indicators and trends that can give you a fairly good idea of where things are headed. For example, Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist, recently told HousingWire that he believes the housing market is entering a golden period. His forecast is based on a few key indicators. One is the job market. With the unemployment rate below 4 percent and expected to stay low, it is reasonable to believe that more Americans will feel secure in their income and ready to buy. Those prospective home buyers may also be motivated by the fact that mortgage rates are now hovering just above historic lows. The combination of financial security and affordable financing should lead to increasing home sales. And while boosted demand may push prices higher, Nothaft doesn’t expect a dramatic spike. In short, his expectation is that housing fundamentals will stay relatively steady through the end of next year. “It’s possible that a year from now there could be a full-blown crisis in the Middle East that’s going to cause oil prices to skyrocket and trigger a recession, but absent something like that, we see a real golden period for housing through at least the next year,” Nothaft said. More here.

When you’re young, there are many things that might lead you to look for a new place to live. Maybe you’re moving because you want to be closer to a new job or you’ve started a family and need more space. Whatever the case, there’s nothing strange about being on the move when you’re young. But, according to a new analysis, young adults in America today are moving more often than previous generations did. In fact, the percentage of 25-to-34 year olds who have lived in their home for less than two years has risen to 45.3 percent in recent years. By comparison, it was 33.8 percent in 1960. So what accounts for millennials’ mobility? Well one big difference between today’s young adults and past generations is that younger Americans tend to get married later in life these days. That means, settling down and establishing a long-term living situation is less of a priority. There have also been changes to the way the typical young American builds a career. Where, in the past, it was common to get a job and stay with the same company for many years, today young adults are more likely to move from one job to the next in order to achieve their professional goals. More here.

According to the latest Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association, average mortgage rates fell last week from the week before. Rates were down for 30-year fixed-rate loans with both conforming and jumbo balances, loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, and 15-year fixed-rate loans. Naturally, the decline led to an increase in demand for mortgage loans. In fact, application demand was up 8.1 percent from the week before. Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said most of the improvement was due to rising refinance activity. “Borrowers responded to these lower rates, leading to a 14 percent increase in refinance applications,” Kan said. “Although refinance activity slowed in September compared to August, the months together were the strongest since October 2016. The slight changes in rates are still causing large swings in refinance volume, and we expect this sensitivity to persist.” Demand for loans to buy homes also rose and is now 10 percent higher than it was last year at the same time. The MBA’s weekly survey has been conducted since 1990 and covers 75 percent of all retail residential mortgage applications. More here.

Freddie Mac’s most recent forecast is good news for anyone concerned that there’s trouble ahead for the housing market. That’s because, despite recent reports of a potential economic slowdown, the market is well positioned to remain strong. Why? Well, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, points to mortgage rates as one factor stirring interest in buying a home. “Despite fears of an economic slowdown, the housing market continues to be a bright spot in the economy,” Khater said. “While mortgage rates have ticked up in recent weeks, they remain lower than they were a year ago which will help boost sales headed into the fall.” In addition to low mortgage rates, there is evidence that more new homes are being built. And the additional supply should help keep home prices from spiking. Already, home price increases have slowed significantly. According to the forecast, prices are only expected to be up 3.4 percent in 2019, which is in line with long-term growth. In other words, affordability conditions are expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future and, with more homes available to buyers, Americans looking to buy a home will have more homes to choose from and fewer worries about rising costs. More here.