Demand for mortgage applications saw a dramatic jump last week, according to new numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Overall, application demand was up 23.5 percent from one week earlier. A large share of the rebound was homeowners looking to refinance their loans now that rates have fallen to their lowest level since last February. But, though much of the surge was refinance activity, home purchase loans also had a good week. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said purchase activity rebounded after an end-of-the-year slump. “Purchase applications had their strongest week in a month, finishing over 4 percent higher than a year ago, as both conventional and government purchase activity bounced back with solid gains after a sluggish holiday season,” Kan said. But though the gains were impressive, the week’s results follow an unusually slow holiday season and include an adjustment for the New Year’s Day holiday. Going forward, there is some concern that the government shutdown and stock market volatility may negatively affect housing market activity but lower rates and surging demand are an encouraging sign to start the year. More here.

For many years following the housing crash, home buying conditions were excellent. Home prices had plummeted and mortgage rates were at historic lows. It was a buyer’s market and a good deal for anyone who could take advantage. Unfortunately though, since prices had fallen so far, many homeowners who may have wanted to make a move couldn’t without selling their house for much less than they’d paid for it. But these days, those same homeowners have seen their home’s value rebound and maybe even exceed what it was before the crash. That means, though buying conditions aren’t what they were then, conditions have improved significantly for homeowners who are looking to sell. According to Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index – which measures Americans’ feelings about the housing market, economy, and their personal financial situation – survey respondents have noticed. The most recent results show an increase in the number of respondents who said it was a good time to sell. The flip side, of course, is that a decreasing number also said it was a good time to buy. More here.

That mortgage rates moved higher last year isn’t news to anyone that’s been thinking of buying a home. It seemed, just as home price increases started to slow, mortgage rates heated up. But, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s final Weekly Applications Survey of 2018, mortgage rates ended the year trending downward. The now weeks-long decline continued over the final two weeks of December and has now dropped rates to their lowest level since September of last year. But, though rates fell, demand for mortgage applications was also down. Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president of economic and industry forecasting, says demand for loans may have been affected by the government shutdown. “Even with lower borrowing costs, both purchase and refinance applications decreased over the two-week holiday period, as both conventional and government applications dropped,” Kan said. “Part of the decline in mortgage applications was possibly because of the government shutdown, as concerns over delays in FHA application processing times likely contributed to the weakness in activity.” Whatever the case, the fact that mortgage rate increases have cooled off is encouraging news for prospective buyers. More here.

Living close to family and friends is a priority for most home buyers. It consistently ranks high on the list of things buyers say they want in their next place. For that reason, most of us tend to stay close to home. But that’s not to say there aren’t Americans looking to make a move that takes them a bit further away. In fact, there are many reasons someone might want to shop for a home outside of their immediate neighborhood, including a new job opportunity or retirement. But where are the most popular destination for out-of-state movers? Well, according to United Van Lines 42^nd Annual National Movers Study, Vermont is the state with the highest percentage of inbound moves. But though the Northeastern state leads the list, most of the states seeing a high percentage of out-of-state migration are in the South and West. States like Oregon, North Carolina, Nevada, Washington, South Dakota, and Arizona are attracting more Americans than location in the Midwest and Northeast. Michael Stoll, an economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, says there are reasons these places are more popular. “The data collected by United Van Lines aligns with longer-term migration patterns to southern and western states, trends driven by factors like job growth, lower costs of living, state budgetary challenges, and more temperate climates,” Stoll said. More here.

Naturally, home prices are a top topic for anyone buying or selling a home in the coming year. And, with mortgage rates expected to continue trending upward, they are becoming an even more important component of the affordability equation. So what’s the forecast for 2019? Well, there’s good news and bad. For starters, CoreLogic’s most recent Home Price Index says prices are actually expected to have fallen from November to December. But, year-over-year numbers show they’ve risen by 5.1 percent from 2017. That means, values are moderating in the near term but still increasing overall. Further, they expect that they’ll continue to head upward. That’s the bad news. The good news is that a rising number of available homes for sale is expected to slow the rate of increase. In fact, CoreLogic expects home prices this year to come in 4.8 percent higher than the year before. And while the improvement may seem slight, the fact that price increases are beginning to slow is good news for interested home buyers this year. More here.

There are a lot of factors that play a role in the health of the housing market. For example, in order to have an accurate view of where the market is, you have to have an idea about where mortgage rates and prices are headed, how many new homes are being built, how many active listings there are, and how interested buyers may be. Beyond that there things like economic concerns, consumer confidence, and the job market that also have an effect. In other words, it’s a complicated mix and, in order to really understand it, you have to look at the bigger picture. Take home sales, for example. They are a commonly cited statistic but, without context, they don’t mean much. National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, explains one way that today’s numbers can be put in better perspective. “Home sales in 2018 look to close out the year with 5.3 million home sales, which would be similar to that experienced in the year 2000,” Yun says. “But given the 17 million more jobs now compared to the turn of the century, home sales are clearly underperforming today. That also means there is steady longer-term growth potential.” In other words, though sales may have disappointed this year, when put in perspective they actually look poised for growth. More here.